IDC Predicts First Smartphone Industry Downturn

In fact, 2015 will mark the first year of single-digit growth across the market with shipments of about 1.43 billion units, according to IDC's predictions. The global smartphone market is posting its first single-digital growth year on record. As a result, the only smartphone available that actually runs Windows 10 is the Lumia 950, which according to Llama has only received mixed reviews.

IDC said that Android will continue to remain the leading smartphone platform, but the growth in shipments of Android devices will be merely 9.5%, which is lower than the market average.

As for areas of growth, IDC says the Middle East & Africa (MEA) region will surpass "hot markets" like India and Indonesia this year with an year-on-year shipment growth of 50%.

"As shipment volumes continue to slow across many markets, consumers will be enticed by both affordable high-value handsets as well as various financing options on pricier models", said Anthony Scarsella, Research Manager with IDC's Mobile Phones team. IDC predicts that over the forecast period, Android will continue its dominance in the smartphone market. Apple's iOS is expected to maintain a market share of 14 percent to 15 percent annually. He told us he predicted earlier this year 129.2 million handsets in the USA would ship.

The 10.2% decline is a big reversal from what IDC forecast in May, when it said Windows Phone would see 34% growth for all of 2015 and would account for the shipment of 46.8 million phones. While the platform's five-year compounded growth rate will be 4.5%, Windows Phone will have a higher year-over-year growth rate in 2019 than iOS or Android, at 11.4%. But telecom company KDDI says its new "Digno rafre" phone - to be launched in Japan next week - is the only one that can withstand a soapy bath. This was brought about by the Microsoft/Nokia push into the low-end mass market. Such vendors could include HTC, LG, Samsung or other, smaller Android vendors.

Windows 10 build 10586.17 was initially expected this week, but the chances are that Microsoft is getting ready for a release on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The research firm is predicting the worldwide smartphone market growth to come down to just 4.7% by the year 2019.

"Despite all the effort Microsoft has put in the launch of Windows 10, IDC does not expect Microsoft's share of the smartphone OS market to grow much over the coming years", the market watcher said in a statement.

The weaker growth has mainly been due to an economic slowdown in China as well as the world's second-largest economy becoming a replacement market - where users generally refrain from buying brand new products.

IDC noted that the majority of Apple's sales have transitioned into replacement markets, which is a reason that Apple has moved into the iPhone trade-in space.

Source: IDC Predicts First Smartphone Industry Downturn